Why we have such great success and profits by Ian Copsey
The way I do things differently helps to provide a higher percentage of accurate support & resistance levels from which my long term subscribers make consistent profits.
Many forex trading aspirants as well as experienced traders appear confused that I provide both bullish and bearish analysis. Some say that I’m hedging my bets or don’t know which way it’s going. In fact that is not true. I have spent many years studying price. Price is the only way to forecast accurately. It does develop in structures that when recognized do provide excellent indications of not only where it’s going but also when the underlying assumption is proven wrong.
However, there are countless potential variations that could fit into these structures. Is price going to retrace 23.6% or possibly 50%, or even 61.8%? It can retrace 100%! It would be no sense in advising traders to buy/sell at the 61.8% retracement as it may stall at 50% in which case the opportunity is lost. It could retrace 100% which will trigger the stop loss.
The way I do things differently helps to provide a higher percentage of accurate support & resistance levels from which my long term subscribers make consistent profits.
Many forex trading aspirants as well as experienced traders appear confused that I provide both bullish and bearish analysis. Some say that I’m hedging my bets or don’t know which way it’s going. In fact that is not true. I have spent many years studying price. Price is the only way to forecast accurately. It does develop in structures that when recognized do provide excellent indications of not only where it’s going but also when the underlying assumption is proven wrong.
However, there are countless potential variations that could fit into these structures. Is price going to retrace 23.6% or possibly 50%, or even 61.8%? It can retrace 100%! It would be no sense in advising traders to buy/sell at the 61.8% retracement as it may stall at 50% in which case the opportunity is lost. It could retrace 100% which will trigger the stop loss.
Now let’s look at a 3 wave move. This represents a corrective structure
Breach of the key support area that breaks the upward structure can be a great trading opportunity!
Do you really want to be without the potentially profit-making knowledge of what will happen if a support or resistance area breaks?
HOW DO YOU KNOW WHICH SUPPORT OR RESISTANCE WILL PROVIDE THE TRADE?
It is impossible to be 100% correct in forecasting markets. Therefore we need tools to strengthen the odds in our favor. Which support will hold in an uptrend? Which projection will price move to in a trend. I like to be correct 100% of the time. This is the way I measure the success of my analysis. However, pride doesn’t always make profit. It is therefore imperative that you do your own due diligence.
This is where a news release can have a larger impact in extending a trend or even suggest a price reversal. So what can you do to protect yourself at these times?
My key support/resistance levels are recognized as providing high percentage trade opportunities. The key is to filter the choices by other techniques.
Trade Set-ups
Very simple techniques using simple indicators can be used to try and identify when a reversal or a correction is about to allow the underlying trend to resume, or maybe even break.
Example.
On the 21st January I noted in my analysis for GBPUSD:
Bias: While 1.4016-51 caps I still feel the downside has further to go - target at 1.3730
Bullish Analysis: Break of 1.4075 & 1.40 have seen the downside accelerate and there should be further to go. However, the first move today should be higher and this has already started. There is minor resistance at 1.3967 and stronger between 1.4016-1.4051. This higher resistance should cap. Thus only a break back above 1.4055 would suggest extension to 1.4130-40 at least. Note the next higher resistance at 1.4293 and
then 1.4394…
Well, will it be safe to just assume that the 1.4012-50 area will cap? Indeed, will the high come at 1.4012 or close to 1.4050?
Let’s have a look at the 5 minute chart for that day.
Do you really want to be without the potentially profit-making knowledge of what will happen if a support or resistance area breaks?
HOW DO YOU KNOW WHICH SUPPORT OR RESISTANCE WILL PROVIDE THE TRADE?
It is impossible to be 100% correct in forecasting markets. Therefore we need tools to strengthen the odds in our favor. Which support will hold in an uptrend? Which projection will price move to in a trend. I like to be correct 100% of the time. This is the way I measure the success of my analysis. However, pride doesn’t always make profit. It is therefore imperative that you do your own due diligence.
This is where a news release can have a larger impact in extending a trend or even suggest a price reversal. So what can you do to protect yourself at these times?
My key support/resistance levels are recognized as providing high percentage trade opportunities. The key is to filter the choices by other techniques.
Trade Set-ups
Very simple techniques using simple indicators can be used to try and identify when a reversal or a correction is about to allow the underlying trend to resume, or maybe even break.
Example.
On the 21st January I noted in my analysis for GBPUSD:
Bias: While 1.4016-51 caps I still feel the downside has further to go - target at 1.3730
Bullish Analysis: Break of 1.4075 & 1.40 have seen the downside accelerate and there should be further to go. However, the first move today should be higher and this has already started. There is minor resistance at 1.3967 and stronger between 1.4016-1.4051. This higher resistance should cap. Thus only a break back above 1.4055 would suggest extension to 1.4130-40 at least. Note the next higher resistance at 1.4293 and
then 1.4394…
Well, will it be safe to just assume that the 1.4012-50 area will cap? Indeed, will the high come at 1.4012 or close to 1.4050?
Let’s have a look at the 5 minute chart for that day.
Well, it maybe that due to a move becoming more complicated that the underlying analysis is incorrect and the anticipated trending move does not follow-through higher. This will mean that Wave 1 was actually a Wave (a), Wave 2 was Wave (b) and Wave 3 was actually Wave (c). Thus a larger correction is due.
Without going deeply into Elliott Wave, each wave has guidelines that will provide common areas of when they will stall, how far they will correct or extend. In addition each wave should also develop in a particular way that should be in accordance with that particular type/position of wave. In particular Wave 4 has common retracement levels which may be used to take advantage of the extension in Wave 5.
Take a simple 5 wave move. This represents a trending move (or part of a counter trend.)
I have placed on here a simple slow stochastic. The Pound rose to 1.4016. The Stochastic has formed a bearish divergence. Well, it’s not always safe to just assume a reversal when a divergence has formed. Normally it is better to confirm break of a support or of a pattern. Use your Forex Trading PA for a timely Alert
In this case we see breach of a supporting trend lines this adds weight to the possibility that we have probably seen the peak. Remember also that I had been indicating that the weekly cycles were very bearish and the downside was very vulnerable. This should have been enough to sell on the retest use the Forex Traders PA to alert you of an immanent trend line break out. There would have been additional support for the expected decline on the break of the previous swing low…
Second Example.
On the 23rd January I wrote in the analysis for EURUSD:
Bias: Until the 1.3085-05 area breaks there remains the risk If losses - watch for breaks
Daily Bearish: The break of 1.2960 generated a test of the next support at 1.2913 and just 6 points below. There is support at 1.2970 and breach would probably cause extension to 1.2945 but while it may cause a temporary pullback the emphasis would then be lower through yesterday's low at 1.2907 and to 1.2885 at least. If this breaks then the larger risk will be for a retest at the 1.2823 low and then 1.2787. Take care we could see a correction from there but overall the implication will be for losses to 1.2711-38 and probably 1.2656 (max 1.2610.)
In this case we see breach of a supporting trend lines this adds weight to the possibility that we have probably seen the peak. Remember also that I had been indicating that the weekly cycles were very bearish and the downside was very vulnerable. This should have been enough to sell on the retest use the Forex Traders PA to alert you of an immanent trend line break out. There would have been additional support for the expected decline on the break of the previous swing low…
Second Example.
On the 23rd January I wrote in the analysis for EURUSD:
Bias: Until the 1.3085-05 area breaks there remains the risk If losses - watch for breaks
Daily Bearish: The break of 1.2960 generated a test of the next support at 1.2913 and just 6 points below. There is support at 1.2970 and breach would probably cause extension to 1.2945 but while it may cause a temporary pullback the emphasis would then be lower through yesterday's low at 1.2907 and to 1.2885 at least. If this breaks then the larger risk will be for a retest at the 1.2823 low and then 1.2787. Take care we could see a correction from there but overall the implication will be for losses to 1.2711-38 and probably 1.2656 (max 1.2610.)
We can see on that day the Euro managed to recover only mildly only. In the hourly chart, on the high bar of the day we saw what was bearish a key reversal bar. On this same bar stochastic crossed lower– thus setting up a potential move lower as long as support breaks. I had pointed to a break of 1.2907 signaling losses, initially to the prior day’s low at 1.2885 and probably to the 1.2787 support where a reversal was
possible.
Indeed, price moved down to just below 1.2787 but reversed higher from 1.2764…
Integration of the Analysis and Setup signals
To act on indicator set up signals one must have confidence in support and resistance levels. The methodology of deriving support and resistance levels is based on my own adaptation of Elliott Wave and is recognized as being some of the most reliable levels in the market.
Acting on either support/resistance or set up signals in isolation raises the chances of failure. While I will never claim that these techniques will never lose money, with hard study and application these can provide solid results as my other subscribers clearly find.
The work involved in identifying trade-confirming chart patterns and being alerted when prices of the pairs you are watching arrive in your "Action zone" zone is now made easy by the use of the Forex Traders PA to your chart work. The potential profitability is made easier and your time, which is money is freed up substantially.
possible.
Indeed, price moved down to just below 1.2787 but reversed higher from 1.2764…
Integration of the Analysis and Setup signals
To act on indicator set up signals one must have confidence in support and resistance levels. The methodology of deriving support and resistance levels is based on my own adaptation of Elliott Wave and is recognized as being some of the most reliable levels in the market.
Acting on either support/resistance or set up signals in isolation raises the chances of failure. While I will never claim that these techniques will never lose money, with hard study and application these can provide solid results as my other subscribers clearly find.
The work involved in identifying trade-confirming chart patterns and being alerted when prices of the pairs you are watching arrive in your "Action zone" zone is now made easy by the use of the Forex Traders PA to your chart work. The potential profitability is made easier and your time, which is money is freed up substantially.
We are owners and developers of The Forex Traders PA. The PA will continue to revolutionise Forex Trading for both the Demo Traders and live Forex Traders alike. Endless hours of PC watching are of the past. The Forex Traders PA increases profits and frees up your personal time.
While these may be against my bias, they are clearly fundamental trigger levels in my analysis. It is possible to make considerable profit out of trading these breaks.
My approach is that if I only provide analysis that supports by directional bias for the day, then if I’m wrong then a subscriber will not get value for money. He/she has nor guidance for those instances. I don’t consider that good service…
However, it does mean that a trader must think about his trades and where the next profitable move may be. It is here that the Forex Traders PA will show its metal by identifying and providing chart patterns which confirm direction.
UNDERSTANDING PRICE IS THE MOST IMPORTANT FACTOR IN TRADING
Let me attempt to describe what I mean by this and how my most profitable subscribers make their profit…
I use cycles to identify the overall direction. Is the main trend up or is it down? Conveniently I can utilize the terms “weekly cycles” and “daily cycles” but in fact they all integrate into one large structure of cyclic pressures which affect price.
I use Elliott Wave as my main tool for understanding how price should move within the underlying direction. Elliott Wave provides structure, the manner in which price should develop and when complemented by Fibonacci and harmonic ratios it is possible to identify likely stalling areas
My approach is that if I only provide analysis that supports by directional bias for the day, then if I’m wrong then a subscriber will not get value for money. He/she has nor guidance for those instances. I don’t consider that good service…
However, it does mean that a trader must think about his trades and where the next profitable move may be. It is here that the Forex Traders PA will show its metal by identifying and providing chart patterns which confirm direction.
UNDERSTANDING PRICE IS THE MOST IMPORTANT FACTOR IN TRADING
Let me attempt to describe what I mean by this and how my most profitable subscribers make their profit…
I use cycles to identify the overall direction. Is the main trend up or is it down? Conveniently I can utilize the terms “weekly cycles” and “daily cycles” but in fact they all integrate into one large structure of cyclic pressures which affect price.
I use Elliott Wave as my main tool for understanding how price should move within the underlying direction. Elliott Wave provides structure, the manner in which price should develop and when complemented by Fibonacci and harmonic ratios it is possible to identify likely stalling areas
In more directional moves price has its own structure and each currency has quirks and more common wave relationships that it often (but not always) tends to follow. Therefore if price stops moving in a structure that would confirm that the directional movement then there are often very clear support/resistance levels that indicate a larger reversal.
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